Results

Our model against the result · 2026 season · spread

Locked before kickoff 11–16 · 27 games

Projected after the fact: 38–36–6 · 80 games. Kept apart, never added to the figure above.

Locked games are graded against the line at the moment our projection was locked, before kickoff, and never changed. Games projected after the fact come from the same model run on finished games; their market line is not shown. Games with a gap of 2+ points: 4–5 locked, 21–14–3 after the fact. Only 9 games with a gap of 2+ points were locked before kickoff, too few to judge the model by. Right means the side our line favored covered. A loss counts the same as a win. This is a record, not a recommendation.

Week 7

DAL @ PHIFinal 38–21PHI −0.9Our line · gap 5.4Line when locked: DAL −4.5 Wrong
KC @ SEAFinal 3–20SEA −3.1Our line · gap 1.6Line when locked: SEA −1.5 Right
LA @ LVFinal 35–21LA −4.8Our line · gap 1.7Line when locked: LA −6.5 Wrong
GB @ DETFinal 17–20DET −3.1Our line · gap 0.4Line when locked: DET −3.5 Right
DEN @ ARIFinal 30–16DEN −4.4Our line · gap 0.6Line when locked: DEN −5 Wrong
TB @ CARFinal 43–13CAR −3.1Our line · gap 0.6Line when locked: CAR −2.5 Wrong
SF @ ATLFinal 20–29SF −2.2Our line · gap 2.3Line when locked: SF −4.5 Right
NYG @ HOUFinal 27–21HOU −4.7Our line · gap 2.3Line when locked: HOU −7 Right
MIA @ NYJFinal 28–25NYJ −0.8Our line · gap 3.7Line when locked: NYJ −4.5 Right
IND @ MINFinal 10–16MIN −3.6Our line · gap 0.9Line when locked: MIN −4.5 Wrong
CLE @ TENFinal 27–24CLE −2.3Our line · gap 0.8Line when locked: CLE −1.5 Right
CIN @ BALFinal 35–13BAL −2.3Our line · gap 1.2Line when locked: BAL −3.5 Right
PIT @ NOFinal 16–10PIT −2.2Our line · gap 0.7Line when locked: PIT −1.5 Right
NE @ CHIFinal 24–30NE −2.5Our line · gap 4Line when locked: CHI −1.5 Wrong

Week 6

WAS @ SFFinal 17–23SF −6.5Our line · gap 1Line when locked: SF −7.5 Right
DAL @ GBFinal 13–23GB −2.4Our line · gap 0.9Line when locked: GB −1.5 Right
LAC @ KCFinal 6–22KC −5Our line · gap 2.5Line when locked: KC −7.5 Wrong
BUF @ LVFinal 33–30BUF −5.3Our line · gap 0.8Line when locked: BUF −4.5 Wrong
ARI @ LAFinal 18–16LA −8.7Our line · gap 3.8Line when locked: LA −12.5 Right
TEN @ INDFinal 26–20IND −7.1Our line · gap 0.6Line when locked: IND −6.5 Wrong
PIT @ TBFinal 26–19PIT −1.4Our line · gap 1.1Line when locked: PIT −2.5 Wrong
NYJ @ NEFinal 19–26NE −9.3Our line · gap 1.8Line when locked: NE −7.5 Wrong
NO @ NYGFinal 34–27NYG −2Our line · gap 0.5Line when locked: NYG −1.5 Wrong
CHI @ ATLFinal 31–23ATL −1.1Our line · gap 2.6Line when locked: CHI −1.5 Wrong
CAR @ PHIFinal 25–14PHI −1.3Our line · gap 4.3Line when locked: CAR −3 Wrong
BAL @ CLEFinal 10–13BAL −4Our line · gap 1Line when locked: BAL −3 Wrong
HOU @ JAXFinal 34–31JAX −2.7Our line · gap 0.2Line when locked: JAX −2.5 Wrong
SEA @ DENFinal 14–17SEA −3.2Our line · gap 0.7 · backtest Wrong

Week 5

BUF @ LAFinal 37–34LA −1.5Our line · gap 2 · backtest Right
BAL @ ATLFinal 30–23BAL −0.4Our line · gap 3.9 · backtest Right
SF @ SEAFinal 32–29SEA −3.3Our line · gap 0.3 · backtest Wrong
DET @ ARIFinal 45–21DET −3.5Our line · gap 2 · backtest Wrong
CHI @ GBFinal 7–31CHI −1.4Our line · gap 0.1 · backtest Right
DEN @ LACFinal 23–17DEN −1.4Our line · gap 2.1 · backtest Wrong
NYG @ WASFinal 27–27NYG −0.4Our line · gap 3.9 · backtest Right
MIN @ NOFinal 23–13MIN −3.9Our line · gap 1.4 · backtest Right
LV @ NEFinal 17–45NE −4.8Our line · gap 1.3 · backtest Right
IND @ PITFinal 22–34IND −0.1Our line · gap 3.1 · backtest Wrong
HOU @ TENFinal 26–3HOU −5.3Our line · gap 1.2 · backtest Wrong
CLE @ NYJFinal 12–17CLE −1.9Our line · gap 4.5 · backtest Wrong
CIN @ MIAFinal 31–24CIN −3.8Our line · gap 3.2 · backtest Push
PHI @ JAXFinal 17–19JAX −5.8Our line · gap 1.7 · backtest Right
TB @ DALFinal 24–16DAL −5.3Our line · gap 4.2 · backtest Right

Week 4

ATL @ NOFinal 45–24NO −1.3Our line · gap 0.2 · backtest Right
DET @ CARFinal 26–32DET −1.9Our line · gap 2.6 · backtest Right
LAC @ SEAFinal 23–30SEA −8.5Our line · gap 1.5 · backtest Push
KC @ LVFinal 30–27KC −2.4Our line · gap 2.1 · backtest Right
DEN @ SFFinal 14–24SF −3Our line · gap 0 · backtest Wrong
MIA @ MINFinal 10–15MIN −9.7Our line · gap 0.3 · backtest Right
TEN @ BALFinal 18–24BAL −9.5Our line · gap 2 · backtest Right
NYJ @ CHIFinal 12–23CHI −8.8Our line · gap 5.3 · backtest Right
NE @ BUFFinal 29–26BUF −4.1Our line · gap 2.9 · backtest Right
LA @ PHIFinal 24–20LA −2.5Our line · gap 1 · backtest Wrong
JAX @ CINFinal 22–17JAX −2.9Our line · gap 5.4 · backtest Right
GB @ TBFinal 17–14TB −0.5Our line · gap 3.5 · backtest Push
DAL @ HOUFinal 34–30HOU −3.2Our line · gap 0.2 · backtest Wrong
ARI @ NYGFinal 24–36NYG −1.5Our line · gap 4 · backtest Right
IND @ WASFinal 30–13IND −1.8Our line · gap 2.7 · backtest Wrong
PIT @ CLEFinal 24–27PIT −0.8Our line · gap 1.7 · backtest Right

Week 3

PHI @ CHIFinal 7–27CHI −1.6Our line · gap 5.1 · backtest Right
LA @ DENFinal 26–30LA −1.5Our line · gap 3 · backtest Wrong
LV @ NOFinal 35–27NO −2.1Our line · gap 1.4 · backtest Right
BAL @ DALFinal 34–31BAL −3.6Our line · gap 0.6 · backtest Push
MIN @ TBFinal 23–16MIN −1.3Our line · gap 0.2 · backtest Wrong
ARI @ SFFinal 30–36SF −8.2Our line · gap 0.7 · backtest Wrong
TEN @ NYGFinal 7–12NYG −5.1Our line · gap 2.6 · backtest Right
SEA @ WASFinal 31–33SEA −6.7Our line · gap 1.8 · backtest Right
NYJ @ DETFinal 24–31DET −9.1Our line · gap 2.1 · backtest Push
NE @ JAXFinal 6–35JAX −2Our line · gap 1 · backtest Wrong
LAC @ BUFFinal 16–24BUF −7.1Our line · gap 0.1 · backtest Right
KC @ MIAFinal 24–10KC −4.6Our line · gap 5.4 · backtest Wrong
HOU @ INDFinal 17–19HOU −0.2Our line · gap 1.3 · backtest Right
CIN @ PITFinal 27–30CIN −0.7Our line · gap 2.8 · backtest Right
CAR @ CLEFinal 18–21CAR −0.1Our line · gap 2.4 · backtest Right
ATL @ GBFinal 35–14GB −5.5Our line · gap 1 · backtest Wrong

Week 2

NYG @ LAFinal 6–28LA −6.1Our line · gap 0.4 · backtest Wrong
IND @ KCFinal 30–33KC −3.6Our line · gap 2.4 · backtest Right
WAS @ DALFinal 20–37DAL −1.5Our line · gap 2 · backtest Wrong
SEA @ ARIFinal 31–7SEA −7Our line · gap 3.5 · backtest Right
MIA @ SFFinal 13–35SF −7.1Our line · gap 5.4 · backtest Wrong
LV @ LACFinal 26–14LAC −4Our line · gap 2.5 · backtest Right
JAX @ DENFinal 13–20JAX −1.7Our line · gap 4.2 · backtest Wrong
PIT @ NEFinal 3–20NE −4.3Our line · gap 0.2 · backtest Wrong
PHI @ TENFinal 24–20PHI −6.1Our line · gap 0.9 · backtest Right
NO @ BALFinal 24–17BAL −6.6Our line · gap 1.9 · backtest Right
MIN @ CHIFinal 9–3CHI −0.8Our line · gap 3.7 · backtest Right
GB @ NYJFinal 20–17GB −4.9Our line · gap 1.4 · backtest Wrong
CLE @ TBFinal 23–19TB −3.8Our line · gap 4.7 · backtest Right
CIN @ HOUFinal 20–6HOU −3.9Our line · gap 0.9 · backtest Wrong
CAR @ ATLFinal 34–3ATL −1.1Our line · gap 3.6 · backtest Wrong
DET @ BUFFinal 31–41BUF −3.2Our line · gap 2.3 · backtest Wrong

Week 1

DEN @ KCFinal 10–31DEN −0.1Our line · gap 2.6 · backtest Wrong
DAL @ NYGFinal 20–28NYG −1Our line · gap 4 · backtest Right
WAS @ PHIFinal 22–24PHI −5.2Our line · gap 0.8 · backtest Right
MIA @ LVFinal 13–27MIA −0.3Our line · gap 3.3 · backtest Wrong
GB @ MINFinal 22–39MIN −0.1Our line · gap 1.4 · backtest Wrong
ARI @ LACFinal 26–14LAC −4.9Our line · gap 3.6 · backtest Right
TB @ CINFinal 27–33CIN −2.2Our line · gap 1.3 · backtest Wrong
NYJ @ TENFinal 23–10TEN −2.7Our line · gap 1.2 · backtest Wrong
NO @ DETFinal 30–31DET −6Our line · gap 1 · backtest Right
CLE @ JAXFinal 10–34JAX −8.3Our line · gap 0.2 · backtest Wrong
CHI @ CARFinal 59–37CHI −2.1Our line · gap 0.9 · backtest Wrong
BUF @ HOUFinal 36–31HOU −0.7Our line · gap 2.2 · backtest Wrong
BAL @ INDFinal 41–23BAL −1.7Our line · gap 1.3 · backtest Wrong
ATL @ PITFinal 13–20PIT −2.5Our line · gap 4 · backtest Wrong
SF @ LAFinal 27–7LA −3Our line · gap 0.5 · backtest Right
NE @ SEAFinal 10–13SEA −4.9Our line · gap 1.9 · backtest Push