Pickle ProjectionsNFL 2026 · our model against the market
NFL: our line against the market.
Locked before kickoff 11–16 · 27 games
Projected after the fact: 38–36–6 · 80 games. Kept apart, never added to the figure above.
Our line is graded against the market at the moment it was locked, before kickoff, and never changed. Games with a gap of 2+ points: 4–5 locked, 21–14–3 after the fact. Only 9 games with a gap of 2+ points were locked before kickoff, too few to judge the model by. A loss counts the same as a win. This is a record, not a recommendation.
Every game ›Week 8
Our line next to the market · all times Central
Prices captured Thu 6:05 AM CT
Thu, Oct 29
Gap 1.5 · we lean CAR
Sun, Nov 1
Gap 3.6 · we lean ARI
Gap 4.2 · we lean ATL
Gap 0.6 · we lean BUF
Gap 0.6 · we lean PIT
Gap 4.4 · we lean IND
Gap 3 · we lean LV
Gap 2.6 · we lean MIN
Gap 3.1 · we lean TEN
Gap 0.4 · we lean LAC
Gap 1.5 · we lean DEN
Gap 1.3 · we lean MIA
Gap 5.2 · we lean PHI
Mon, Nov 2
Gap 0.7 · we lean SEA